Mixed
Socioeconomic status, demographic factors (sex, age, country of birth), lifestyle habits (binge eating, alcohol use), and specific biomarkers (TSH, triglycerides, calcium, HbA1c) are the strongest predictors of BMI levels, with psychological factors (anxiety/depression scores) having stronger predictive value than self-reported diagnoses.
If you are struggling with obesity, look beyond just calories. Your socioeconomic context, mental health (specifically anxiety and binge eating tendencies), and specific blood markers (like TSH and triglycerides) are powerful indicators of your BMI trajectory. Addressing psychological health through validated screening tools may be more predictive and actionable than relying solely on self-reported diagnoses or medication history.
The 10 individual variables with the strongest predictive value, in order of decreasing strength, were country of birth, marital status, sex, calcium levels, age, levels of TSH and HbA1c, AUDIT score, BE tendencies according to QEWPR, and TG levels. The strongest domains predicting BMI were: Socioeconomic status, Demographics, Biomarkers (notably TSH), Lifestyle/habits, Biomarkers for cardiovascular disease and diabetes, and Potential anxiety and depression.
Why this rating
Prospective cohort study with large sample size (n=971) and rigorous machine learning methodology (random forest with conditional variable importance), though observational nature limits causal inference.
Source
The BAriatic surgery SUbstitution and nutrition (BASUN) population: a data-driven exploration of predictors for obesity
Gudrún Höskuldsdóttir et al. · BMC Endocrine Disorders · 2021
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