Macro partitioning
Long-term adherence to a low-carbohydrate, high-fat diet is projected to result in obesity (mean BMI 31.76), whereas shifting 50% of kilocalories from BMI-increasing foods to BMI-decreasing foods is projected to result in a normal BMI (23.26).
If you are following a low-carb, high-fat diet, be aware that while you might lose weight quickly, this specific analysis projects that maintaining this diet long-term (over 20 years) could lead to obesity. To achieve a normal BMI long-term, the model suggests shifting half your calories from foods that increase BMI (like animal fats and sugars) to foods that decrease it (like vegetables and whole grains).
While following a low carbohydrate, high fat diet has been demonstrated to cause modest short term weight loss in obese people, the BMI formula projects that the long-term effect (> 20 years) would be obesity (projected mean BMI=31.76). For example, shifting 50% of kcal/day from BMI increasing foods to BMI decreasing foods equates to a BMI formula estimate=23.26 BMI units over the long term.
Why this rating
The study is a post-hoc ecological analysis of secondary data, not a randomized controlled trial, and the preprint is not peer-reviewed.
Source
Artificial intelligence analytics applied to body mass index global burden of disease worldwide cohort data derives a multiple regression formula with population attributable fraction risk factor coefficients testable by all nine Bradford Hill causality criteria
David K Cundiff et al. · medRxiv · 2020
DOI 10.1101/2020.07.27.20162487
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