Hormonal
A semi-mechanistic exposure-response model using semaglutide 2.4 mg once weekly can accurately predict individual 1-year weight loss outcomes based on baseline demographics and early weight data (up to 28 weeks).
If you are starting semaglutide 2.4 mg, do not judge the treatment's effectiveness solely on your weight at week 0 or even week 4. The model shows that predictions become highly accurate (MAE ~3kg) only after incorporating weight data from weeks 8, 16, or 28. Use early weigh-ins to recalibrate expectations with your doctor rather than stopping treatment prematurely due to perceived lack of efficacy.
An exposure-response model has been established that quantitatively describes the relationship between systemic semaglutide exposure and weight loss and predicts weight-loss trajectories for people with overweight or obesity who are receiving semaglutide doses up to 2.4 mg once weekly.
Why this rating
Based on multiple phase 2 and 3 randomized controlled trials (STEP 1-5) with large sample sizes (N > 3000 per trial).
Source
A model‐based approach to predict individual weight loss with semaglutide in people with overweight or obesity
Anders Strathe et al. · Diabetes Obesity and Metabolism · 2023
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