Adherence
Early weight loss (first 14 days) in a behavioral weight management program predicts long-term weight loss trajectory patterns, specifically differentiating those who achieve sustained loss from those who do not, although it does not distinguish between different types of successful sustained loss patterns.
If you are starting a weight loss program, do not judge your success or failure in the first two weeks. The data shows that how much you lose in the first 14 days does not predict *how* you will lose weight long-term (steady vs. plateau), but it does predict *if* you will lose weight significantly. If you are not losing weight early, do not quit. Instead, focus on adherence. If you are losing weight, do not expect that fast loss will continue linearly. The key to long-term success is staying in the program for the long haul, regardless of the initial speed.
The weight change within the first 14 days is statistically indistinguishable for Patterns 1, 2, and 3. The early change, however, allowed us to differentiate consolidated Patterns 4–7 from Pattern 1.
Why this rating
Large dataset (667 participants, 69k records) from a real-world commercial program, but observational in nature without a randomized control of the prediction algorithm itself.
Source
Weight Loss Trajectories and Short-Term Prediction in an Online Weight Management Program
Bingjie Zhou et al. · Nutrients · 2024
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