Research

Hormonal

A clinical risk model predicting new-onset diabetes (using HbA1c, fasting glucose, age, BMI, and TG/HDL ratio) identifies patients who derive significantly greater absolute risk reduction from pharmacological weight loss therapy (lorcaserin) compared to low-risk patients, despite similar hazard ratios.

If you have cardiovascular risk factors and are considering weight loss medication, ask your doctor about your specific risk of developing diabetes. A simple calculation using your age, BMI, and blood markers can show if you are likely to get significant absolute protection from diabetes by using weight-loss drugs. High-risk patients gain much more absolute benefit than low-risk patients, even if the relative effectiveness looks similar.

GoodQualifiesHIGH confidence
While hazard ratios for new-onset diabetes with a weight-loss therapy were comparable across risk groups (annual risk of <1%, 1%–5%, and >5%), there was a sixfold gradient in absolute risk reduction from lowest to highest risk group (P=0.027).
Filipe A. Moura et al. · Diabetes Obesity and Metabolism · 2024

Why this rating

Based on pooled data from two large, randomized, placebo-controlled cardiovascular outcome trials (FOURIER and CAMELLIA-TIMI 61) with adjudicated endpoints.

Source

Risk of new‐onset diabetes and efficacy of pharmacological weight loss therapy

Filipe A. Moura et al. · Diabetes Obesity and Metabolism · 2024

DOI 10.1111/dom.15798

cohort · n=21143Cited 2×
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DOI resolved against Crossref · corpus check 2026-06-10

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