Research
Adherence
Previous race experience, specifically the number of ultra-marathon finishes and personal best marathon time, is the most important predictor of successful ultra-marathon performance.
If you are new to ultra-running, prioritize completing shorter ultra-distances to gain experience. Your personal best marathon time and the number of ultras you have finished are better predictors of your future success than your current fitness level alone. Start with shorter ultras to build this specific experience.
GoodSupportsHIGH confidence
Previous experience (e.g., number of finishes in ultra-marathon races and personal best marathon time) is the most important predictor variable for a successful ultra-marathon performance followed by specific anthropometric (e.g., low body mass index, BMI, and low body fat) and training (e.g., high volume and running speed during training) characteristics.
Why this rating
Based on multiple studies cited in the review.
Source
Physiology and Pathophysiology in Ultra-Marathon Running
Beat Knechtle et al. · Frontiers in Physiology · 2018
DOI 10.3389/fphys.2018.00634
narrative_reviewCited 309×
Read the paper DOI resolved against Crossref · corpus check 2026-06-10
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This is one finding among thousands. Every one is graded and traced to its source, so you can see what the evidence actually supports. Browse the research →