Research
Mixed
US obesity prevalence is predicted to plateau independently of current prevention strategies due to demographic factors (birthrate and probability of being born into an obesogenic environment).
Current obesity prevention strategies in the US are not reversing the epidemic but are likely contributing to a predicted plateau. To achieve further reductions, new strategies must be significantly more effective than the natural demographic trends predicted by this model.
ModerateConditionalMEDIUM confidence
The dynamic model predicts that: obesity prevalence is a function of birthrate and the probability of being born in an obesogenic environment; obesity prevalence will plateau independent of current prevention strategies; and the US prevalence of overweight, obesity, and extreme obesity will plateau by about 2030 at 28%, 32%, and 9% respectively.
Why this rating
This is a mathematical model based on historical data, not a clinical trial.
Source
Dynamic model predicting overweight, obesity, and extreme obesity prevalence trends
Diana M. Thomas et al. · Obesity · 2013
DOI 10.1002/oby.20520
mechanism_onlyCited 88×
Read the paper DOI resolved against Crossref · corpus check 2026-06-10
Related findings · Mixed
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