Research

Mixed

Unchecked obesity trends in the US population are projected to cause a decline or leveling off of life expectancy in the first half of the 21st century, reversing historical gains.

The steady rise in life expectancy is ending due to obesity. To maintain or extend your lifespan, you must address obesity now, as medical treatments for resulting diseases like diabetes and heart disease are insufficient to counteract the mortality risk. Focus on preventing obesity, especially in children, as the primary lever for longevity.

GoodRefutesHIGH confidence
We anticipate that as a result of the substantial rise in the prevalence of obesity and its life-shortening complications such as diabetes, life expectancy at birth and at older ages could level off or even decline within the first half of this century.
S. Jay Olshansky et al. · New England Journal of Medicine · 2005

Why this rating

Based on large cohort studies and demographic modeling, though it is a projection rather than a completed clinical trial.

Source

A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the United States in the 21st Century

S. Jay Olshansky et al. · New England Journal of Medicine · 2005

DOI 10.1056/nejmsr043743

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DOI resolved against Crossref · corpus check 2026-06-10

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