Research
Energy balance
The '3500-calorie/pound' rule for weight loss drastically overestimates actual body weight changes over prolonged periods because it fails to account for the reduction in metabolic rate that occurs as body weight decreases.
Do not expect linear weight loss. As you lose weight, your body burns fewer calories, so your initial rate of loss will slow down. Use dynamic models or tools like the NIH Body Weight Planner to set realistic expectations.
GoodRefutesHIGH confidence
However, this rule has recently been found to drastically overestimate actual body weight changes, especially over prolonged periods of time, because it neglects changes in metabolic rate that take place when diet is changed and body weight is reduced.
Why this rating
Based on mathematical models validated against controlled-feeding studies.
Source
Nutrition and the science of disease prevention: a systems approach to support metabolic health
Brian J. Bennett et al. · Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences · 2015
DOI 10.1111/nyas.12945
narrative_reviewCited 59×
Read the paper DOI resolved against Crossref · corpus check 2026-06-10
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