Macro partitioning
Iso-caloric substitution of 3% of total energy from animal protein for saturated fat, mono-unsaturated fat, or carbohydrates is associated with a statistically significant increase in all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.
If you are replacing 3% of your daily calories with animal protein (e.g., by eating more meat or dairy) and reducing fats or carbs, this study suggests your risk of dying from heart disease or any cause may increase. To mitigate this, prioritize plant-based proteins or ensure that the animal protein replaces less healthy components like refined sugars or saturated fats, though even then, risk remains elevated compared to plant-based swaps.
Substitution of 3% of total energy from animal protein for fat (saturated, mono-unsaturated) and carbohydrate (simple, complex) was associated with all-cause mortality (Hazard Ratios [HR] from 1.05 to 1.11), mostly driven by cardiovascular mortality (HR from 1.13 to 1.15).
Why this rating
Prospective cohort study with large sample size (n=24,106), long follow-up (median 22.9 years), and rigorous iso-caloric substitution modeling, though observational design limits causal inference.
Source
Effect of Iso-Caloric Substitution of Animal Protein for Other Macro Nutrients on Risk of Overall, Cardiovascular and Cancer Mortality: Prospective Evaluation in EPIC-Heidelberg Cohort and Systematic Review
Rashmita Bajracharya et al. · Nutrients · 2023
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