Research

Mixed

Achieving a BMI <25 kg/m2 is associated with a significantly greater reduction in predicted 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk compared to maintaining a BMI ≥25 kg/m2, regardless of whether the weight loss is achieved via tirzepatide or placebo.

If you have obesity or overweight, aiming for a BMI below 25 kg/m2 may offer greater protection against heart disease and stroke than stopping at a smaller weight loss. This target is increasingly achievable with modern medications like tirzepatide, which help achieve significant weight reduction. While current guidelines suggest 5-15% weight loss, this analysis indicates that reaching a 'normal' BMI might provide additional cardiovascular benefits, particularly for those with existing risk factors like high blood pressure or NAFLD.

ModerateSupportsMEDIUM confidence
After adjusting for baseline covariates, relative to baseline, participants achieving BMI <25 kg/m2 had a significantly greater percent reduction in predicted ASCVD risk (39.4% vs 10.6%, P < 0.001) compared to the BMI ≥25 kg/m2 group.
Lixin Guo et al. · EClinicalMedicine · 2025

Why this rating

Post hoc analysis of pooled RCTs; uses a validated prediction model (ACC/AHA PCE) but relies on predicted rather than observed hard clinical events.

Source

Achieving BMI &lt;25 kg/m2 was associated with reduced predicted risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in people with obesity or overweight on tirzepatide or placebo: a post hoc analysis of SURMOUNT-1, -3, and -CN

Lixin Guo et al. · EClinicalMedicine · 2025

DOI 10.1016/j.eclinm.2025.103722

rct · n=2691
Read the paper
DOI resolved against Crossref · corpus check 2026-06-10

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