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Current trends in the U.S. population project that by 2030, nearly 1 in 2 adults will have obesity (BMI ≥30) and nearly 1 in 4 will have severe obesity (BMI ≥35), with severe obesity becoming the most common BMI category among women, non-Hispanic black adults, and low-income adults.

This paper does not offer an individual intervention but highlights a massive public health trend. For an individual, the key takeaway is that the environment is becoming increasingly obesogenic, particularly for low-income and minority groups. Prevention efforts at the community and policy level are critical to counteracting these projected trends.

GoodSupportsHIGH confidence
Our projections show that the national prevalence of adult obesity and severe obesity will rise to 48.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 47.7 to 50.1) and 24.2% (95% CI, 22.9 to 25.5), respectively, by 2030... We project that by 2030 severe obesity will be the most common BMI category nationwide among women, black non-Hispanic adults, and low-income adults.
Zachary J. Ward et al. · New England Journal of Medicine · 2019

Why this rating

The study uses a massive dataset (6.2 million adults) and a validated bias-correction method, but it is an observational projection, not a controlled intervention trial.

Source

Projected U.S. State-Level Prevalence of Adult Obesity and Severe Obesity

Zachary J. Ward et al. · New England Journal of Medicine · 2019

DOI 10.1056/nejmsa1909301

cohort · n=6321357Cited 1,971×
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DOI resolved against Crossref · corpus check 2026-06-10

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