Energy balance
Continued global nutrition transition toward high animal-source food and empty calorie consumption will result in 45% of the world population being overweight and 16% obese by 2050, driving a 50% increase in global food demand.
To avoid the projected 45% overweight rate by 2050, individuals and policymakers must prioritize reducing household food waste and shifting dietary composition away from animal-source foods and empty calories. This involves increasing consumption of vegetables, fruits, and nuts, and recognizing that current trends are unsustainable for both health and the environment.
We find that by 2050, 45% (39–52%) of the world population will be overweight and 16% (13–20%) obese... Population growth, ageing, increasing body mass and more wasteful consumption patterns are jointly pushing global food demand from 30 to 45 (43–47) Exajoules.
Why this rating
Based on a comprehensive open-source model integrating historical data (1965-2010) and projecting future scenarios (SSPs), validated with cross-validation (R2 0.418-0.722).
Source
The ongoing nutrition transition thwarts long-term targets for food security, public health and environmental protection
Benjamin Leon Bodirsky et al. · Scientific Reports · 2020
DOI 10.1038/s41598-020-75213-3
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