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Continued global nutrition transition toward high animal-source food and empty calorie consumption will result in 45% of the world population being overweight and 16% obese by 2050, driving a 50% increase in global food demand.

To avoid the projected 45% overweight rate by 2050, individuals and policymakers must prioritize reducing household food waste and shifting dietary composition away from animal-source foods and empty calories. This involves increasing consumption of vegetables, fruits, and nuts, and recognizing that current trends are unsustainable for both health and the environment.

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We find that by 2050, 45% (39–52%) of the world population will be overweight and 16% (13–20%) obese... Population growth, ageing, increasing body mass and more wasteful consumption patterns are jointly pushing global food demand from 30 to 45 (43–47) Exajoules.
Benjamin Leon Bodirsky et al. · Scientific Reports · 2020

Why this rating

Based on a comprehensive open-source model integrating historical data (1965-2010) and projecting future scenarios (SSPs), validated with cross-validation (R2 0.418-0.722).

Source

The ongoing nutrition transition thwarts long-term targets for food security, public health and environmental protection

Benjamin Leon Bodirsky et al. · Scientific Reports · 2020

DOI 10.1038/s41598-020-75213-3

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DOI resolved against Crossref · corpus check 2026-06-10

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