Mixed
The MicroSimulation Core Obesity Model (MS-COM) accurately predicts cardiovascular and mortality outcomes in adults with overweight or obesity, including those with normoglycemia, prediabetes, or type 2 diabetes, supporting its use for evaluating obesity management interventions.
For policymakers and health technology assessment bodies, the MS-COM model provides a reliable tool to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of obesity interventions (like semaglutide 2.4 mg) by accurately predicting long-term cardiovascular and mortality risks in overweight and obese adults, including those with diabetes.
External validation of MS-COM showed good concordance with dependent and independent sources, suggesting the model accurately predicts obesity-related complications in an overweight/obese population with normoglycaemia/prediabetes and type 2 diabetes.
Why this rating
The validation uses a large number of endpoints (106) and demonstrates high linear correlation (R2 up to 0.99) in dependent validation, though independent validation for T2D incidence was weaker.
Source
External Validation of the MicroSimulation Core Obesity Model (MS-COM) to Predict Cardiovascular Outcomes, Mortality and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Incidence and Assess Cost Effectiveness
Christopher G. Fawsitt et al. · PharmacoEconomics · 2025
DOI 10.1007/s40273-025-01555-3
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