Research

Energy balance

High consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPF), defined as >30.8% of total daily energy intake, significantly increases the risk of large weight gain (≥1.68 kg/year) and large waist circumference gain (≥2.42 cm/year) compared to low consumption (<17.8% of energy).

To minimize weight and waist gain, limit ultra-processed foods to less than 17.8% of your daily energy intake. Focus on minimally processed foods, as UPFs are designed to be overconsumed due to low satiety and high energy density, regardless of sugar content.

GoodSupportsHIGH confidence
fourth (>30.8 %) v. first (<17.8 %) quartile of UPF consumption was associated (relative risk (95 % CI)) with 27 and 33 % greater risk of large weight and waist gains (1.27 (1.07, 1.50) and 1.33 (1.12, 1.58)), respectively.
Scheine Canhada et al. · Public Health Nutrition · 2019

Why this rating

Large longitudinal cohort (n=11,827) with standardized measurements and adjustment for confounders, though observational design limits causal inference.

Source

Ultra-processed foods, incident overweight and obesity, and longitudinal changes in weight and waist circumference: the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil)

Scheine Canhada et al. · Public Health Nutrition · 2019

DOI 10.1017/s1368980019002854

cohort · n=11827Cited 258×
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DOI resolved against Crossref · corpus check 2026-06-10

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