Research
Mixed
Aggressive population-level reduction of systolic blood pressure (SBP) by approximately 3.6–3.8 mm Hg is the most effective intervention to counteract the projected epidemic of cardiovascular disease in China, preventing 2.9 to 5.7 million deaths over 20 years.
For public health policy, prioritizing blood pressure control (targeting a ~3.8 mm Hg mean reduction) is the highest-yield strategy to prevent cardiovascular deaths in China, outperforming even aggressive smoking cessation programs in terms of total mortality reduction across both genders.
ModerateSupportsMEDIUM confidence
Aggressively reducing active smoking in Chinese men to 20% prevalence in 2020 and 10% prevalence in 2030 or reducing mean systolic blood pressure by 3.8 mm Hg in men and women would counteract adverse trends in other risk factors by preventing cardiovascular events and 2.9 to 5.7 million total deaths over 2 decades.
Why this rating
Based on a computer simulation (Markov model) using projected trends and cohort data, not a randomized controlled trial.
Source
Future Cardiovascular Disease in China
Andrew E. Moran et al. · Circulation Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes · 2010
DOI 10.1161/circoutcomes.109.910711
narrative_reviewCited 434×
Read the paper DOI resolved against Crossref · corpus check 2026-06-10
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- Aggressive tobacco control reducing male smoking prevalence to 10% by 2030 prevents significant cardiovascular and noncardiovascular deaths in men, but fails to prevent cardiovascular deaths in women.Moderate
- Population aging and growth alone will increase annual cardiovascular disease events by approximately 50% between 2010 and 2030 in China, even if all risk factors remain constant at 2000 levels.Moderate
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